研究
环宇探索从登月可达性的成本栈开始：地球发射、地月转移、着陆与上升、乘员生存、监管、风险与返回。
- 初始摘要：`knowledge/research-digests/2026-05-30-cosmosexplore-lunar-cost-stack.md`
- 第一批基线：NASA Moon facts、NASA OIG Artemis 成本报告、SpaceX rideshare pricing、NASA LCROSS
- 估算规则：每个模型输出都说明假设与来源基线
CosmosExplore
研究
研究笔记Aviation Learning Curves Are a Warning, Not a ShortcutSpaceflight cost discussions often borrow the aviation analogy: fly more, reuse more, learn more, reduce unit cost. CosmosExplore needs to use that analogy carefully. Which parts transfer...研究笔记Life Support Turns Days Into CostFor uncrewed payloads, mass and trajectory dominate the first calculation. For people, life support changes the shape of the problem. A personal lunar route needs air, water, waste handli...研究笔记The Human Changes the Cost StackUncrewed spacecraft can accept failure modes that are unacceptable when a person is on board. CosmosExplore needs to mark the moment when "send mass to space" becomes "keep a person alive...研究笔记The Household-Price Target Is an Order-of-Magnitude Test"A house price" is not a quote. It is a discipline test. If lunar access is billions today and a household-scale target is hundreds of thousands, the model must show which cost layers req...研究笔记Launch Cost Is Only the First Line ItemPersonal lunar access cannot be priced from launch alone. Launch is the visible invoice, but a crewed lunar route also carries transfer, landing, life support, mission operations, safety ...研究笔记Lunar Water Is Not Yet Lunar PropellantWater ice can change lunar logistics only after it becomes a mined, processed, stored, and transported resource. CosmosExplore should track the break-even chain from "water is present" to...研究笔记Orbital Refueling Moves the BottleneckOrbital refueling is one of the clearest examples of a lunar-cost trade. It can reduce the amount a single vehicle must launch with, but it adds depot, tanker, transfer, storage, boiloff,...研究笔记A Personal Satellite Starts With Four ProblemsCosmosExplore treats the personal satellite path as a hobby and learning path, not a commercial spaceflight business. The first practical target is not a private rocket or a public servic...研究笔记Radiation Shielding Turns Risk Into MassPersonal lunar access cannot be modeled as transport alone. Once a human leaves low Earth orbit, radiation becomes a mass, materials, monitoring, and mission-duration problem. CosmosExplo...研究笔记Regulation Is a Cost Stack, Not a FootnoteThe price of personal spaceflight is not only hardware. A crewed or participant-carrying route needs licensing, informed consent, waivers, risk disclosure, insurance logic, and responsibi...研究笔记Reuse Changes the Floor, Not Every FloorReusable launch changes cost structure, but the economic limit depends on what is reused, how often, how much inspection is needed, and what remains expendable. CosmosExplore needs to tra...