Research
CosmosExplore starts with the lunar access cost stack: Earth launch, cislunar transfer, landing and ascent, crew survival, regulation, risk, and return.
- Initial digest: `knowledge/research-digests/2026-05-30-cosmosexplore-lunar-cost-stack.md`
- First baseline: NASA Moon facts, NASA OIG Artemis cost reporting, SpaceX rideshare pricing, NASA LCROSS
- Estimate rule: every model output states assumptions and source baselines
Research NoteAviation Learning Curves Are a Warning, Not a ShortcutSpaceflight cost discussions often borrow the aviation analogy: fly more, reuse more, learn more, reduce unit cost. CosmosExplore needs to use that analogy carefully. Which parts transfer...Research NoteLife Support Turns Days Into CostFor uncrewed payloads, mass and trajectory dominate the first calculation. For people, life support changes the shape of the problem. A personal lunar route needs air, water, waste handli...Research NoteThe Human Changes the Cost StackUncrewed spacecraft can accept failure modes that are unacceptable when a person is on board. CosmosExplore needs to mark the moment when "send mass to space" becomes "keep a person alive...Research NoteThe Household-Price Target Is an Order-of-Magnitude Test"A house price" is not a quote. It is a discipline test. If lunar access is billions today and a household-scale target is hundreds of thousands, the model must show which cost layers req...Research NoteLaunch Cost Is Only the First Line ItemPersonal lunar access cannot be priced from launch alone. Launch is the visible invoice, but a crewed lunar route also carries transfer, landing, life support, mission operations, safety ...Research NoteLunar Water Is Not Yet Lunar PropellantWater ice can change lunar logistics only after it becomes a mined, processed, stored, and transported resource. CosmosExplore should track the break-even chain from "water is present" to...Research NoteOrbital Refueling Moves the BottleneckOrbital refueling is one of the clearest examples of a lunar-cost trade. It can reduce the amount a single vehicle must launch with, but it adds depot, tanker, transfer, storage, boiloff,...Research NoteA Personal Satellite Starts With Four ProblemsCosmosExplore treats the personal satellite path as a hobby and learning path, not a commercial spaceflight business. The first practical target is not a private rocket or a public servic...Research NoteRadiation Shielding Turns Risk Into MassPersonal lunar access cannot be modeled as transport alone. Once a human leaves low Earth orbit, radiation becomes a mass, materials, monitoring, and mission-duration problem. CosmosExplo...Research NoteRegulation Is a Cost Stack, Not a FootnoteThe price of personal spaceflight is not only hardware. A crewed or participant-carrying route needs licensing, informed consent, waivers, risk disclosure, insurance logic, and responsibi...Research NoteReuse Changes the Floor, Not Every FloorReusable launch changes cost structure, but the economic limit depends on what is reused, how often, how much inspection is needed, and what remains expendable. CosmosExplore needs to tra...